The PlayStation 3 Ripple Effect

January 26, 2007

I saw over on Joystiq that analysts think soft PS3 sales could spell trouble for big publishers like EA. The thinking is this: because big publishers like EA have pinned 31% of their sales as coming from the new platform, their stock could take a dive as Sony's console continues to stagnate at retail. You can read the analysis here.

Not being an expert on the quirks of the stock market, I can't say if that will be the case. But looking at the big picture, I can't see the slow start of Sony's new platform as something that'll bring the whole game industry down. Microsoft is tracking right along its projections and Nintendo is blowing away its numbers. Meanwhile the PlayStation 2 sold more than any other system this holiday. So gamers aren't out there sitting on their thumbs just because the PS3 is expensive or doesn't have a lot of quality content yet -- there are plenty of other games to buy for other systems. Companies like Electronic Arts have a pretty diverse lineup across all the platforms, so weakness in one platform can be made up elsewhere.

Example: UbiSoft had great numbers this past season, specifically because Xbox 360 and Wii games were flying off the shelves. Speaking of which, the "Throw the cow" minigame in UbiSoft's Rayman: Raving Rabbids for the Wii is now a party game staple at my house. Usually after a lot of drinking. But I digress.



Is the picture really that bleak for Sony? Among most of the gamers I speak with, the PS3 is too expensive and it doesn't have enough quality games to make it worth buying. So what's going to change? Not the price: PS3 price drops aren't likely in the near future due to the hardcore hardware. That leaves us to look at the games.

Here, the picture is a little brighter: If you take a look at GameSpy's Most-Wanted Games of 2007 and IGN's Most-Anticipated Sony Games of 2007, there are still a handful of Sony exclusives that'll make the system shine. Heavenly Sword, Metal Gear Solid 4, Lair, and Warhawk top my list.

In other words, the developer support is too strong to allow the system to fall completely flat. The PlayStation 3 is going to be a major player in the coming years, even if the system won't dominate the market like its older brother did. The only question remaining is if Sony can find a way to make the price less of a gut-punch before Microsoft and Nintendo get too far ahead.

      -Fargo

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